Wednesday 16th - Champions League

Wednesday brings the conclusion of the Champions League last 16 where Chelsea host FC Copenhagen and Lyon go to the Spanish capital to face Real Madrid. Chelsea have what seems to be an unassailable 2-0 lead going into the second leg, meaning Copenhagen will have to score twice without reply just to force extra time. I’m not going to say this is impossible, but it won’t happen. They were poor enough at home to not force a clear opening so to expect them to improve that drastically for the second leg is pretty much unimaginable.

With that poor first leg performance in mind I am obviously going for a comfortable Chelsea win, full of confidence following 3 wins on the bounce. What I can’t believe is that it is a shade over even money that only Chelsea score in the match. Copenhagen couldn’t even manage a goal scoring chance at home so I can’t see them scoring at the Bridge. Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian handicap is available at 11/10, and again I see this being very generous. Even the 5/2 for Chelsea -2.5 may be worth a small punt because Copenhagen are effectively out of this tie, illustrated by the 55/1 they are currently trading at on Betfair to qualify (and even that price isn’t tempting me).

The other question on everybody’s lips is when will El Nino get his goal, he is a very skinny 8/13 with some firms, but can be backed at 5/6 to score anytime. He is 7/2 to score the first goal in the match, and just 4/1 to score 2 or more.

I can’t believe Chelsea are odds on -1.5 goals on the handicap, or it is odds on for only them to score. Backing one of them, or both, should reap rewards. I would also have a small punt on Torres to score first, because let’s face it; he’s got to score soon...hasn’t he?!

The second game is Real Madrid vs Lyon. Amazingly Lyon are unbeaten against the Madrid outfit in the last 7 Champions League meetings. Madrid have the away goal but I wouldn’t bet against Lyon getting one of their own. Both teams to score is best priced 21/20 in this one. Lyon are 4/1 to qualify and giving Madrid’s recent frailties against the French outfit that may not be the worst bet in the world tomorrow. However I can see Madrid just about coming through this and so I recommend backing both teams to score at 21/10, and a 2-1 Real Madrid win on offer at 8/1.

Good Luck

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