Friday 25th's Internationals

With a flurry of International action this week, we get started with six European Championship 2012 Qualifiers tonight with reigning European and World Champions Spain in action along with the Netherlands, Italy and France amongst others.

The odds of 1/4 about Spain against the Czech Republic will not be getting any pulses racing and neither will the ridiculous odds of 1/16 about France away at European whipping boys Luxembourg, who are available at 57/1!

World Cup finalists Holland travel to Hungary for their latest Group E clash and find themselves unbeaten since the World Cup Final defeat to Spain. Hungary have been revitalised and won their last five international matches, this run followed just one win in 11, with nine of them being defeats. Holland’s price of 8/15 is short enough but I still expect them to get the job done.

Slovenia host Italy in the first of the Group C games and the Italians are notorious for not getting many goals, especially away from home. They have drawn their last two fixtures at home to Romania and away to Germany. They also stuttered on their trip to face Northern Ireland earlier in the Group where they could only manage a 0-0 draw. Slovenia are a very indifferent team but before the World Cup last summer they won five games in a row on home soil. Italy have just one win in their last five away games, four of which were draws and I think you can add another one to that list this evening. I expect a low scoring draw at 9/4.

Northern Ireland make the trip to Serbia in the other game in Group C and they have started this Qualifying campaign in decent fashion with an away win in Slovenia followed by draws against Italy and away at the Faroe Islands. Serbia have lost three and drawn one of their last four home matches and I can see Northern Ireland battling on for a point here tonight with the draw at 3/1.

The final game I want to look at is the tightest one of the night. Austria play host to Belgium in Group A. Belgium come into this one on the back of a 2-0 win against Russia and have won their last two on the road, but before that they were 11 without a win away from home. Austria have an average record of late but they have picked up maximum points from their first two home games, as well as a 4-4 draw away to Belgium. I think home advantage will be enough for Austria here and the home win is best priced 16/11.

They are my four selections and the 4-timer pays 46/1. That would be a brave bet considering the two draws in there so I would recommend betting the selections in trebles. 

Saturday 18th's Action

For this weekend’s action I have picked out 3 home wins in the Premier League that will pay something around the 6/1 mark as a treble. There are also two interesting Championship bets including what I think is the best bet of the weekend at 15/8.

The first game in the Premier League is the early kick off, Tottenham vs West Ham. I don’t normally like to bet on the early game but I think West Hams recent revival might hit the buffers at White Hart Lane. Spurs have a great home record lf late, with four wins and two draws coming against Manchester United and AC Milan. They are unbeaten at home in all competitions since the end of September. West Ham’s revival has been concentrated on their home games and they are still very rocky on the road. Therefore Spurs will win this one.

Aston Villa host Wolves on the back of two straight away defeats. The FA Cup defeat to Manchester City can be excused because they went into that game with a depleted starting line-up. Last time out at home they put four past Blackburn and I expect another home victory for them here. Wolves have only one win on their travels all season, all be it against Liverpool, but I expect Villa to get the 3 points here.

Newcastle United travel south to play Stoke City who have been in some indifferent form of late. Having said this, there home form is still very good with no defeat in 7 at the Britannia Stadium. Newcastle are two points above Stoke in the Premier League but I think the home advantage will be enough to see Stoke leapfrog them into the top half of the table.

This Premier League treble offers odds at around 6/1 but there are some big games in the Championship this weekend that would give these odds a nice boost if you can find a fancy in the second tier.

Swansea City play host to Nottingham Forest and both sides have been somewhat out of form of late. Swansea have lost their last two, all be it away from home, whereas Nottingham Forest have no win in six. I fancy Swansea to make that seven without a win for Forest and will be going for a tight home win.

The best bet of the weekend could be backing Norwich City to win away at Hull City. Hull don’t have the greatest home record, they have in fact scored just 14 goals at home all season. Hull have won just twice in their last 9 home games. Norwich on the other hand are second in the league and have a good away record, winning eight and losing just three times all season. They have scored 7 in their last 3 on the road and giving Hull’s serious lack of goals, Norwich should have enough fire power to win this one.

If you fancy the accumulator this 5-timer pays 40/1 with William Hill. As in previous weeks, I would recommend betting in 4-folds or just using some of my selections along with your own.

Good Luck

Follow me on Twitter @AndyClark_TFT

Wednesday 16th - Champions League

Wednesday brings the conclusion of the Champions League last 16 where Chelsea host FC Copenhagen and Lyon go to the Spanish capital to face Real Madrid. Chelsea have what seems to be an unassailable 2-0 lead going into the second leg, meaning Copenhagen will have to score twice without reply just to force extra time. I’m not going to say this is impossible, but it won’t happen. They were poor enough at home to not force a clear opening so to expect them to improve that drastically for the second leg is pretty much unimaginable.

With that poor first leg performance in mind I am obviously going for a comfortable Chelsea win, full of confidence following 3 wins on the bounce. What I can’t believe is that it is a shade over even money that only Chelsea score in the match. Copenhagen couldn’t even manage a goal scoring chance at home so I can’t see them scoring at the Bridge. Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian handicap is available at 11/10, and again I see this being very generous. Even the 5/2 for Chelsea -2.5 may be worth a small punt because Copenhagen are effectively out of this tie, illustrated by the 55/1 they are currently trading at on Betfair to qualify (and even that price isn’t tempting me).

The other question on everybody’s lips is when will El Nino get his goal, he is a very skinny 8/13 with some firms, but can be backed at 5/6 to score anytime. He is 7/2 to score the first goal in the match, and just 4/1 to score 2 or more.

I can’t believe Chelsea are odds on -1.5 goals on the handicap, or it is odds on for only them to score. Backing one of them, or both, should reap rewards. I would also have a small punt on Torres to score first, because let’s face it; he’s got to score soon...hasn’t he?!

The second game is Real Madrid vs Lyon. Amazingly Lyon are unbeaten against the Madrid outfit in the last 7 Champions League meetings. Madrid have the away goal but I wouldn’t bet against Lyon getting one of their own. Both teams to score is best priced 21/20 in this one. Lyon are 4/1 to qualify and giving Madrid’s recent frailties against the French outfit that may not be the worst bet in the world tomorrow. However I can see Madrid just about coming through this and so I recommend backing both teams to score at 21/10, and a 2-1 Real Madrid win on offer at 8/1.

Good Luck

Follow me on Twitter @AndyClark_TFT

Tuesday's Champions League Preview

    The next round of Champions League action is upon us and the first legs of these 2 games wielded just 1 goal. Manchester United entertain Marseille after a 0-0 draw in France, and Inter Milan go to Bayern Munich attempting to overcome a 1-0 deficit from the first leg.

    

    Manchester United have been unusually goal shy at home in the Champions League so far this season, finding the net just twice in their 3 home games in the group stage. The only time they found the net more than once in was at whipping boys Bursaspor, where they won 3-0. This lack of goals may be of concern to United fans and I certainly wouldn’t be backing them at 2/7 to win. Marseille on the other hand scored 10 away from home in the group stage, although 7 of them goals come away at Zilina. They were beaten 2-0 at Chelsea in the opening group game, before beating them 1-0 in the reverse fixture. I think this could be a very uncomfortable night for United fans and a lot depends on the fitness of Nani, who could be back in the picture. I do expect United to go through in the end but not without a few scares along the way. I like the Draw HT, Manchester United FT bet at 10/3. But as I said, this is a very tentative selection in a difficult game to find any real value.

  

    The second game is at the exquisite Allianz Arena where Bayern host Inter Milan, protecting the vital away goal they got in the dying seconds 3 weeks ago. Bayern have been poor this season and lost their 3 games following that win in Milan. They did find their form at the weekend, beating Hamburg 6-0 and that can do their chances no harm at all. Inter have won 2 and drew 1 since the first leg, finding the net 8 times along the way. In the group stages Inter were poor on the road, getting just 1 point and scoring 3. They will have to find a goal in Munich though and that could open the game up, playing into Bayern’s hands. Bayern won all 3 of their home group games, getting 8 goals on the way. The way this game is balanced means the first goal is the key and if Bayern keep playing like that have so far in this seasons Champions League, they should win. They are best priced 10/11. Most bookmakers also have a market Bayern to win by 1 goal and I think 11/4 is a pretty good price in what will be another tight affair.

Goals Galore This Weekend!

    For this weekend’s tipping blog I am going to recommend 4 games from the ‘both teams to score’ market. Betting this way means you are not left disappointed if the team you have put in an accumulator are getting beat 3-0 at half time. There is always a hope that the other team will score and therefore giving you a winning bet.

    The 4 games I am going to look at come from the Championship. Firstly Portsmouth host Middlesbrough and the away team have found the net in 6 of their last 7 away games. Pompy have scored in 18 of their last 20 home games, including the last 16 on the bounce. Therefore I think this is a good starting point for any bet that requires goals.

    The second game is Nottm Forest vs Doncaster. Doncaster have scored 26 goals away from home this season, the most of the entire bottom half. Couple this with Forest not keeping a clean sheet in their last 3 games and it’s safe to say Doncaster have every chance of finding the net. Forest’s amazing unbeaten home record was lost last weekend against Hull and I expect they will want to bounce back and put on a show for their fans.

    Derby play host to Swansea and the home side have netted 27 times at home this season, only Portsmouth have scored more at home in the bottom half of the Championship. Swansea tend to concede a lot of goals but have scored in 5 of their last 6 away games. For that reason I think both these teams will get on the score sheet.

    The final game is Leeds playing host to Ipswich. Leeds always score and have found the net more than any other side in the league. Their attacking play comes at a cost though, and they have also conceded most goals at home in the Championship along with bottom placed Preston. Ipswich aren’t bad on the road and scored twice at Cardiff on their last away day. This one is the banker of the weekend for both teams to score but the 8/13 price won’t be making anyone rich.

    It is worth noting that most bookmakers with set odds ‘goals galore’ coupons such as Betfred, will leave games such as this one out of their coupon because of the likelihood of a goal fest.

    William Hill has a both teams to score accumulator coupon and the 4 games I have chosen is priced at just over 10/1. Don’t forget the result isn’t a concern, as long as both teams in each match find the net.  

Good Luck!

Follow me on Twitter @topfootytips